By DAVID YEPSEN
REGISTER POLITICAL COLUMNIST
Tom Vilsack begins auditioning for a role as Hillary Clinton’s running mate on Monday.
Or maybe it’s for a job in her Cabinet or an appointment to the Supreme Court.
The former Iowa governor plans to endorse Clinton and her campaign has called a press conference to make a “major announcement.”
Yet it could have minor effects come January. It might even prove counterproductive to Clinton’s efforts in the state.
For openers, endorsement politics mean little in Iowa, especially in presidential races, where caucus-goers are notorious for making up their own minds about whom to support for the presidency.
Look at Sen. Tom Harkin’s endorsement of Howard Dean in the 2004 contest. Harkin, who polls show is more popular than Vilsack in Iowa, saw Dean melt in the days following his blessing. Why? Iowa Democrats decided the Vermonter was just too far to the left — perhaps was unelectable — and so more of them opted for John Kerry or John Edwards.
Nor has Vilsack shown any ability to deliver votes in Democratic family fights. In the 2006 Democratic primary for secretary of agriculture, the candidate he endorsed lost.
The myth of endorsement politics continues into more established organizations. In 2004, Dean also was endorsed by the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees union, a group that is supposed to be among the most influential in Democratic politics. That union, along with several others and most Democratic legislators — and some big newspapers, including this one — also went with Mike Blouin in the 2006 Democratic primary for governor.
He lost to Chet Culver.
In Iowa, endorsement politics is old politics. Nobody “delivers” anything anymore, particularly in high-profile races. Yet we media people make a big deal out of them, despite the fact Iowa just doesn’t have the sort of machine politics once seen in urban areas or ethnic neighborhoods. In those places, an endorsement from a key political leader or organization means something, because that leader can produce votes for the anointed candidate. Even in those places today, such influence is on the wane.
In Vilsack’s case, he had to drop out of the presidential race because he was having trouble convincing fellow Iowans to support him. He was running third or fourth in his home state. Now, he’s going to try to persuade others that Clinton is the way to go?
We’ll see. To do that, he will first have some artful explaining to do. Here is a guy who was fashioning himself as a leading anti-war candidate in the race, and now he’s supporting a senator who won’t say she made a mistake in voting for the war? Here is a guy who bemoans the influence of big money in politics, but he’s endorsing a co-leader of one of the biggest political fundraising operations in the nation’s history?
(Tom Vilsack always has had a trial lawyer’s gift of gab, so we’ll all enjoy watching him talk his way through this one.)
Of greater value to Clinton may be the endorsement of Vilsack’s wife, Christie. She is a better campaigner than her husband and could prove helpful to Clinton in convincing women who have never participated in caucuses to turn out on caucus night for the senator.
The downside to Vilsack’s endorsement is it raises expectations about Clinton.
Winning caucuses is always a process of doing better than the political community “expects.” When media and political people hear Vilsack has endorsed Clinton, they’ll think she must be doing quite well in Iowa. After all, if she’s got the endorsement of the former governor, how can she lose, right?
Easy. Since he can’t deliver anyone but himself, she’ll have to earn the rest on her own. Yet by endorsing her, he just raises the informal threshold the political community sets for what constitutes a Clinton “win.”
If she fails to meet it, you’ll hear comments like “she had Vilsack’s endorsement and finished only third? That’s pretty weak.”
Should that happen, her national status as the front-runner will take a hit.
DAVID YEPSEN can be reachedat dyepsen@dmreg.comor (515) 284-8545.
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